US Carbon Transition Risk: The Highwire Act of Municipal Credit Impairment and Climate Justice

Carbon Transition Risk: A Local Problem for Local Economies

Electricity Emissions as a Liability: Data and Approach

Texas and Florida: Carbon Transition Risk to go with their Physical Climate Risk

Figure 1: State-level population and emissions figures for all contiguous US states plus the District of Columbia, with focal states highlighted.
Figure 2: Rankings (top) and values of absolute tCO2 liability $ figures (bottom) for selected counties across the 5-state group, as well as tCO2 liabilities denominated in terms of each county’s assets, revenues, and assessed values, according to each county’s most recent year of reported data.
Figure 3: Population-weighted dot plot of counties in the 5-state group (+ Jefferson County AL); EP tCO2 liability is provided on the y-axis, and total county assets on the x-axis. Counties in the top left represent those that are most vulnerable.

Socioeconomic Vulnerability & Electricity Production

Figure 4: Using all census tracts (N=9,380) with non-zero electricity production emissions, per capita emissions are log-transformed and then grouped into 5 bins with a simple univariate k-means clustering algorithm. Distributions of risQ’s Health Obstacle Score are shown for each emissions bin. Each point is a census tract, colored by percentage of population that is white alone and sized by population density.
Figure 5: The same is shown as Figure 4 but for the At-Risk Employment Score.
Figure 6: The same is shown as Figure 4 but for the Low Educational Attainment Score.
Figure 7: The same is shown as Figure 4 but for the Flood risQ Score.

Insights for US Fixed Income Participants

Appendix

The Social Cost of Carbon

County-Level Case Studies

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We quantify climate risk, carbon transition risk and social impact for US Fixed Income, covering the full municipal bond and MBS universes

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